The trend is mostly in one direction, for the Democrats. The exception to this may be in California, but the commonly quoted Field Poll, the oldest poll in CA, has overstated Democrats performance for at least 20 years, so Boxer was never as far ahead as she was alleged to be. Still, I think she is going to win. In fact, I think tomorrow will be surprisingly good for Democrats. Polls are trending their way, and Republicans are lowering their expectations. Who knows what would've happened had the party not had to deal with the Clinton scandals.
This is my guess on what will happen: Democrats will pick up a seat in Indiana, lose one in Ohio. Democrats gain the New York and North Carolina seats, Republicans the Illinois and either Nevada or South Carolina seats. Wisconsin is tricky, as Russ Feingold, co-author with John McCain (R-AZ) of the campaign finance bill, has been targeted by Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY), the head of the Republican Senate campiagn. McConnell hates campaign finance reform and has poured money into this race. Feingold has chosen to accept no soft money of any kind and has run a shoestring campaign. Unilateral disarmament is a dangerous thing, and the general assumption is that he's doomed. I think he's going to pull it out. Wisconsin is not a Republican state and I think people will choose to split their ticket between Feingold and Tommy Thompson, who will win the Governorship by a wide margin. Overall, I think this is going to be a wash, with no overall gain. Long shot: the Democrats beating Kit Bond in Missouri.
The Governor's races are lopsided. A collection of moderate Republicans have run states very effectively and are winning my margins running from decisive to George Bush's enormous margin in Texas. California is going to be the one exception to this, electing Gray Davis, who will be the first Democratic Governor in 16 years. His wife will be the first Democratic first lady out here since the 1960's, as Jerry Brown didn't have one. Long shot: Jesse "The Body" Ventura being the first third party candidate to actually gain votes on Election Day. I don't think he can win, but he may cost Skip Humphrey the Minnesota Governor's race.
In the House, the Republican gains will be small, maybe even nonexistent. I'd predict a gain of around 2 seats. This will be hailed as a victory by the Democrats, who will babble about "traditional midterm losses" and other nonsense. Republicans have already taken the big midterm swing seats. This was a year that could have been very big for the Democrats, breaking even is a triumph only based on the Clinton scandal and what he did to them. The Republicans just pushed too hard, overplayed their hands, and it has cost them. Long shot: the Democrats gain a seat or two.
Why have things turned around in the last two weeks? Well, I have a theory. It's an issue people aren't going to talk to pollsters about. I think many Democratic voters are fired up because of abortion. In the last two weeks, a doctor was murdered in Buffalo (which had a major affect on the polls in the New York Senate race, where D'Amato and Schumer have different positions on the issue) and letters allegedly containing anthrax showed up in abortion clinics. If the word "Liberal" fires up the conservative voters, the phrase "religious right" fires up the Democratic base. Add that to the underlying uneasiness over the impeachment process and you have momentum change.
This could prove to be an exciting election night.