New Hampshire: The Beginning of the End

It's time for the voters to be heard and, given the compressed primary schedule, they may be saying goodbye to the races just as they begin. It's an odd situation, two clear-cut favorites for the nomination being challenged, yet the challengers are expected to win immediately, or be declared dead. Let's take a quick look at the fields.

Republicans

George W. Bush : Got high poll numbers because people thought he was his father, at which point he was declared invincible, was backed by the GOP establishment because he was a winner, then won the first primary (money) by so wide a margin, he decided to ignore matching funds. Won Iowa, has solid wins ahead, but a loss here takes away the inevitability factor.

John McCain : A maverick, but still very conservative. Wins the character race against anybody. Seems to enjoy the race, actually says funny things. Still, he needs a win here, maybe a decisive one, so that the tables can be turned on Bush in the "who's the winner" race.

Steve Forbes: It's good to be rich. It's bad to be creepy. Running for Secretary of the Treasury.

Alan Keyes: Mr. Entertainment. Keen intellect, sharp wit, black skin -- what's he doing in this party? Oh yeah, anti-abortion, anti-gay rights. Running for the hell of it. Might be on the short list as a VP nominee.

Gary Bauer: Get real. Running because he paid the rent on the campaign headquarters. He'll be gone Wednesday.

Democrats

Al Gore: Vice-President. Ran for President 12 years ago and impressed no one. He's better now. Still tends to look like a character from the DisneyWorld Hall of the Presidents. Good state for him, unions, teachers, strong economy. Involved in Buddhist Temple scam in '96 and weaseled his way out of it. Okay, he Clintoned his way out of it --"no controlling authority against it" - humans don't speak like that.

Bill Bradley: former Senator, former NBA star, college basketball Hall of Famer. Holds record for most points in a Final Four. What does this mean? Well, he's worked with minorities. He knows how to raise money. But he doesn't have a good way to attack Gore. He can't attack the Clinton administration too hard because as a Democrat he'll have to run on its accomplishments in the Fall. When polls showed him slipping, finally got tough with Gore. Did the gloves come off too late?

My predictions:

McCain over Bush by 5-10 points. Predicting these races is extremely difficult, because there is going to be an unprecedentedly high independent vote. In a sense, McCain is battling Bradley for that vote and I think he's going to win it. This will keep his candidacy alive. It will also cause the GOP establishment to rally around Bush. Because while they may not be as excited about Bush as they were a couple of months ago, they don't like McCain one little bit.

Gore over Bradley by 10 points. If Bradley had only had the bad taste to call Gore a liar and a thief earlier, it would have forced Gore on the defensive. It would have reminded Democrats why they didn't like Gore in December. But the whole month of January the Bradley campaign was reduced to a dull humming noise. It was there, but the reason to deprive the Vice President of a very popular and economically successful administration of the nomination was unspoken. He assumed people knew, he was wrong. In the last week, Bradley let loose with the cannons. I think it was too late. I think the Democrats in the state just aren't excited by his candidacy and I think McCain looks like the more useful vote for those independents in between. Frankly, even if he could pull off a miracle here, I don't think he can get the nomination.


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