Flashback 1: It's the Sunday before the election, Newt Gingrich shows up on television predicting Republican gains of "from 8 to 30 seats." This is down from his prediction of 10 - 40 of a month earlier. No one can say Newt isn't conservative.

Flashback 2: 9:30 P.M. EST, Trent Lott is being interviewed on CNN. Democrats have held the South Carolina Senate seat, and Charles Schumer has been declared the winner in New York. Lott still is confident, predicting that there are plenty of races out west and that the Republicans would pick up the five seats necessary for the 60 seat "veto-proof" Senate. Talk about your Beltway disconnects.

Flashback 3: Later that night, Newt Gingrich stands before his loyal constituents, as they wave blue and white placards reading "We Love Newt" and "Speaker Newt", it looks and sounds for all the world like a Presidential convention. Newt is beaming. His predictions have been spectacularly wrong, so he went for the B plan. He talks about how the news media has ignored the fact that the Republicans have won three consecutive Congressional elections for the first time in 70 years. Behind him are professional banners, also blue and white, hanging in a row, proclaiming "America's Victory." Perhaps it was, but not the one they were intended for.

By Wednesday, it was as if Newt had gone through the looking glass. The losers were claiming victory, worse yet for the Speaker, the winners were agreeing with the losers.
By Thursday, the sharks were circling, the crew was restless, and the press was on the prowl. According to Washington insiders, Newt's shrunken majority was going to prove fatal, as six Republicans had sworn that they would never vote for him for speaker, even if he was the choice of the caucus. That meant that he couldn't get elected.
By Friday, former ally Bob Livingston had declared for the Speaker position. At this point, Gingrich walked the plank, putting a brave and noble face on it.

This is an unprecedented occurrence in American politics. Gingrich resuscitated the Congressional Republican Party. Accustomed to losing, he turned them into winners. The price was high: the loss of respect for the institution itself by all Americans. When he got control, Gingrich found that governing was not as simple as bomb throwing. His belligerence wore thin, and ultimately, became the poster boy for Democratic Party fund raising.

As much as anything, this is why the Republicans had to get rid of him. Now they will have the pleasant Bob Livingston in charge. No charisma but no hostility either. Look for the Republicans to diversify their leadership, at least in physical terms. Jennifer Dunn, from Washington will almost certainly be included. I suspect J.C. Watts, of Oklahoma, will find a place. He's the only African-American Republican in Congress and it would look good. The Majority Leader job seems wide open. Steve Largent , also of Oklahoma, has been the most visible candidate, but I wouldn't be surprised if that hurts him. I also think they'll be unlikely to choose two former football players from the state of Oklahoma. I wouldn't be amazed if Dick Armey survives. Look for Bill Paxson to head the RNC.

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