It's time for Michigan to break the tie. Bush's romp in South Carolina has left John McCain on the ropes. Despite the New Hampshire debacle, Bush is starting to smell like a winner again. Actually, the whole thing is starting to smell, as Pat Robertson has joined up and started to refer to McCain and his (Jewish) campaign chairman as bigots (it takes one to know one) and McCain's surrogates make phone calls to Catholics associating George Bush with the anti-Catholicism of Bob Jones University. Ugh! This is getting hard to believe. Now comes the state McCain must have.

This is a horse race, forget issues, it's all about winning. Bush is about to head for much friendlier turf, primaries open only to Republicans throughout the South and in the biggest of states, NY and CA. McCain must win here, must turn the tide. Once it looks like the Bush bandwagon is rolling, everyone is going to jump on.

I like McCain, I would be able to live with him as President -- a huge thing for a Democrat to say. But the fact is that the Bush organization in the big states is going to be hard for McCain to overcome. In primaries it's all about getting your voters out. This means phone banks and political operatives who know the territory. Bush has these things set up in spades. McCain could find his personal popularity isn't enough. That's what I think will happen in Michigan. Bush organization will win it, I don't know by how much, maybe decisively, maybe not, but a win should be enough to end it. Not literally, since the campaign will continue until March 7^th, but it'll be a hard, hard road.

A word about the McCain strategy -- I don't see how you win a party's nomination by having your base outside the party and openly courting them. I think you need to expand your party base with non-party members, not the other way around. Additionally, I think the constant complaining about the dirty tactics of the Bush campaign sounds whiny. Out of character for both McCain and a President.